沙漠的黎明：沙特石油冲击与世界经济Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy

Twilight in the Desert reveals a Saudi oil and production industry that could soon approach a serious, irreversible decline. In this exhaustively researched book, veteran oil industry analyst Matthew Simmons draws on his three-plus decades of insider experience and more than 200 independently produced reports about Saudi petroleum resources and production operations. He uncovers a story about Saudi Arabia’s troubled oil industry, not to mention its political and societal instability, which differs sharply from the globally accepted Saudi version. It’s a story that is provocative and disturbing, based on undeniable facts, but until now never told in its entirety. Twilight in the Desert answers all readers’ questions about Saudi oil and production industries with keen examination instead of unsubstantiated posturing, and takes its place as one of the most important books of this still-young century.

Matthew R. Simmons is Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Simmons & Company International, a Houston-based investment bank that specializes in the energy industry. Mr. Simmons serves on the boards of Brown-Forman Corporation and The Atlantic Council of the United States. He is also a member of the National Petroleum Council and the Council on Foreign Relations. He has an MBA from Harvard University.

Illustrations.
Preface.
Acknowledgments.
PART ONE: FROM BEDOUIN TO BOURGEOISIE.
　1. The Birth of a Nation.
　2. The History of Major Saudi Arabian Oil Discoveries.
　3. Saudi Arabia’s Road to Oil Market Dominance.
　4. The Veil of Secrecy over Saudi Oil Reserves and Production.
PART TWO: THE EBBING OF THE SAUDI OIL BOUNTY.
　5. Saudi Aramco.
　6. Oil Is Not Just Another Commodity.
PART THREE: GIANTS AT THE TIPPING POINT.
　7. Ghawar, the King of Oilfields.
　8. The Second-Tier Oilfields.
　9. The Best of the Rest.
　10. Coming Up Empty in New Exploration.
　11. Turning to Natural Gas.
PART FOUR: TWILIGHT IN THE DESERT.
　12. Saudi Oil Reserves Claims in Doubt.
　13. Facing the Inevitable.
　14. Reading Between the Lines of the Latest News from Aramco.
　15 Aramco Invokes “Fuzzy Logic” to Manage the Future of Saudi Oil.
　16 In Search of Crisper Truths among the Confident Saudi Claims.
　17 Aftermath.
Appendix A: Methodology.
Appendix B: Supporting Technical Data.
Appendix C: The 1974 and 1979 Senate Hearings.
Notes.
Bibliography.
Index.