The Long Tail（长尾理论）

"The Long Tail" is a powerful new force in our economy: the rise of the niche. As the cost of reaching consumers drops dramatically, our markets are shifting from a one-size-fits-all model of mass appeal to one of unlimited variety for unique tastes. From supermarket shelves to advertising agencies, the ability to offer vast choice is changing everything, and causing us to rethink where our markets lie and how to get to them. Unlimited selection is revealing truths about what consumers want and how they want to get it, from DVDs at Netflix to songs on iTunes to advertising on Google. However, this is not just a virtue of online marketplaces; it is an example of an entirely new economic model for business, one that is just beginning to show its power. After a century of obsessing over the few products at the head of the demand curve, the new economics of distribution allow us to turn our focus to the many more products in the tail, which collectively can create a new market as big as the one we already know. The Long Tail is really about the economics of abundance. New efficiencies in distribution, manufacturing, and marketing are essentially resetting the definition of whats commercially viable across the board. If the 20th century was about hits, the 21st will be equally about niches.

作者简介：
Chris Anderson is editor in chief of Wired magazine, a position he has held since 2001. He has worked at The Economist, where he served as U.S. business editor. His career began at the two premier science journals, Science and Nature, where he served in several editorial capacities. He holds a Bachelor of Science degree in Physics from George Washington University and studied Quantum Mechanics and Science Journalism at the University of California at Berkeley. He lives in Berkeley, California.

企业界向来奉80/20法则为铁律，认为80%的业绩来自20%的产品；企业看重的是曲线左端的少数畅销商品，曲线右端的多数商品，则被认为不具销售力。但本书指出，因特网的崛起已打破这项铁律，99% 的产品都有机会销售，「长尾」商品将咸鱼翻身。

不仅如此，长尾市场的规模还大得惊人；把冷门商品的市场规模加总，甚至可与畅销商品抗衡。背后的数学很简单：将一个非常庞大的数字（长尾中的利基商品量）乘以一个相当小的数字（单项长尾商品的销售量），仍能得到超级大的数字。

长尾理论已是许多企业成功的秘诀。举例来说，Google的主要利润不是来自大型企业的广告，而是小公司（广告的长尾）的广告；eBay的获利主要也来自长尾的利基商品，例如典藏款汽车、高价精美的高尔夫球杆等。此外，一家大型书店通常可摆放十万本书，但亚马逊网络书店的书籍销售额中，有四分之一来自排名十万以后的书籍。这些「冷门」书籍的销售比例正以高速成长，预估未来可占整体书市的一半。

长尾理论的来临，将改变企业营销与生产的思维，带动另一波商业势力的消长。执着于培植畅销商品的人会发现，畅销商品带来的利润越来越薄；愿意给长尾商品机会的人，则可能积少成多，累积庞大商机。

长尾理论不只影响企业的策略，也将左右人们的品味与价值判断。大众文化不再万夫莫敌，小众文化也将有越来越多的拥护者。唯有充分利用长尾理论的人，才能在未来呼风唤雨。

Book Description
What happens when the bottlenecks that stand between supply and demand in our culture go away and everything becomes available to everyone?

The Long Tail is a powerful new force in our economy: the rise of the niche. As the cost of reaching consumers drops dramatically, our markets are shifting from a one-size-fits-all model of mass appeal to one of unlimited variety for unique tastes. From supermarket shelves to advertising agencies, the ability to offer vast choice is changing everything, and causing us to rethink where our markets lie and how to get to them. Unlimited selection is revealing truths about what consumers want and how they want to get it, from DVDs at Netflix to songs on iTunes to advertising on Google.

However, this is not just a virtue of online marketplaces; it is an example of an entirely new economic model for business, one that is just beginning to show its power. After a century of obsessing over the few products at the head of the demand curve, the new economics of distribution allow us to turn our focus to the many more products in the tail, which collectively can create a new market as big as the one we already know.

Synopsis
In one of the most important business books since The Tipping Point, Chris Anderson shows how the future of business and culture isn't in hits, the high-volume head of a traditional demand curve, but in what used to be regarded as misses - the endlessly long tail of that same curve.

What happens when everything in the world becomes available to everyone? When the combined value of all the millions of items that may sell only a few copies equals or exceeds the value of the few items that sell millions each? When a bunch of kids with no profit motive can record a song or make a video and get the same electronic distribution for it as the most powerful corporation?

Chris Anderson, editor in chief of Wired magazine, first explored "The Long Tail" in an article that has become one of the most influential business essays of our time. Using the worlds of movies, books, and music, he showed how the Internet has made possible a new world in which the combined value of modest sellers and quirky titles equals the sales of the top hits. He coined the term "The Long Tail" to describe this phenomenon, a phrase that's since appeared in boardrooms and media around the world.

Now, in this highly anticipated book, Anderson shows how we got to this point, and the huge opportunities that exists: for new producers, new aggregators, and new tastemakers. He discuss the reputation economy; the end of inventory; the Wal-Mart effect; the power of peer production; and the rise of massively parallel culture. He demonstrates how Long Tail economies applies to industries ranging from the toy business to advertising to kitchen appliances. He gives the nine rules for operating in a Long Tail economy. And he provides a glimpes of a future that's already here.

Book Dimension
length: (cm)23.4 　　　 　　　　　 　　　　　 width:(cm)15.4

自二○○一年起担任美国《联机》杂志（Wired）总编辑。在他的领导之下，《Wired》杂志五度获得「美国国家杂志奖」（National Magazine Award）的提名，并在二○○五年获得「卓越杂志奖」（General Excellence）首奖。他在同一年也获《广告年代》（Advertising Age）封为「年度编辑」（editor of the year）。他曾服务于《经济学人》（The Economist）、《自然》（Nature）、以及《科学》（Science）等杂志。他也曾在Los Alamos国家实验室担任研究员，并在交通部（Department of Transportation）担任首席科学家的研究助理。他目前和妻子与四个小孩住在北加州。

Chris Anderson is editor in chief of Wired magazine, a position he took in 2001. Since then he has led the magazine to five National Magazine Award nominations, winning the top prize for General Excllence in 2005, a year in which he was also named editor of the year by AdAge magazine. Previously he was at The Economist; Nature; and Science magazines. He has worked as a researcher at Los Alamos and served as research assistant to the Chief Scientist of the Department of Transportation. He lives in Norther California with his wife and four children.

Acknowledgments
Introduction
1. The Long Tail
2. The Rise and Fall of the Hit
3. A Short History of the Long Tail
4. The Three Forces of the Long Tail
5. The New Producers
6. The New Markets
7. The New Tastemakers
8. Long Tail Economics
9. The Short Head
10. The Paradise of Choice
11. Niche Culture
12. The Infinite Screen
13. Beyond Entertainment
14. Long Tail Rules
Coda: Tomorrow's Tail
Notes on Sources and Further Reading
Index