Dynamical Modeling of the Onset of War

    Physical science and technology (engineering) are fundamentally linked by the possibility of predictions: science tests itself and grows by making and checking predictions; technology relies on predictions and thus furthers the growth of the associated science. The political science of international relations is similarly associated with the "technology" of policy making by governments and elites: the growth of the science is dependent upon its applicability for useful policy making. This book explores the applicability of predictability ?based upon dynamical modeling, and the related concepts of chaos and complexity ?to the understanding of international relations, with the hope that this will lead to insights into policy making and hence the growth of the science of international relations.
Readership: Political and physical scientists, and others interested in the application of modern physical dynamical ideas, such as chaos and complexity, to the evolution and stability of the international systems.

Chapter 1 Introduction
1.Desired Goals for this Book
2.Why Study International Relations Scientifically?
3.Science,Technology,and Policy Making
4.Why Study Mathematical Dynamical Modeling?
5.Mathematical Methods of Getting from Now to Then:Dynamic and Stochastic Rules
6.Testing the Scientific Theory
7.How Many Varibles are Needed to Describe the International System
8.Complexity-Unexpected Emergence of New Structures
9.History
10.References and Additional Readings
Chapter 2 Predictive Structure Building——Static and Dynamic
1.Static vs Dynamic Modeling in International Aggregation Studies
2.A Static Model of Aggergation
3.A Dynamic Theory of Aggregation
4.References and Additional Reading
Chapter 3 Predictive Modeling of Arms Races: Static and Dynamic
1.A Static Model of War Initiaiton
2.A Dynamic Model of War Initiation
3.Problems of Static and Dynamic Models
4.Conclusion
5.References and Additional Readings
Chapter 4 Dynamical Concepts
Chapter 5 Chaos and International Stability ?Modeling War Initiation
Chapter 6 Combined Models: Capabilities and Intentions
Chapter 7 Past and Future Research